Financial Future

The world has repeatedly experienced the crisis. From the beginning only regional to global. Asia, for example, has experienced a crisis in 1997-1998.

This crisis originated from Thailand which although not spread far from East Asia and Southeast Asia. Recovery of the crisis occurred in 1999 and then we saw economic conditions in East and Southeast Asia continue to improve. However, in 2008 the world was a global crisis that started from developed countries are the United States. The whole world felt the impact. East Asian crisis and Southeast Asia in the 1997-1998 financial crisis began with the then spread to the economic crisis. For most of Asia, this economic crisis also spread to the social and political crisis. While the global crisis also began with 2008-2009 financial crisis, followed by the economic crisis. Fortunately, there is no social and political impact of the means.

Now many are saying that the global crisis was over. National income has increased again. However, often said that the new restoration feels for the financial sector. While the economic sector recovery was more sluggish. Even the social impact of the crisis is still felt to this day. In a recent UNDP report (The Global Financial Crisis and the Asia-Pacific Region, 2009) argued that social recovery is usually slower than the economic recovery. Even the social impacts such as low nutrient in children can last forever.

Meanwhile, many people who still worry about this economic recovery. The world’s financial system was the cause of all crises are the same as before the crisis. Financial sector is always growing fast, much faster than production sector growth. Though the financial sector is needed to help the growth of the production sector. Financial sectors like oil for motor vehicles can run well. When the oil is too much, any vehicle will stagger and perhaps even strike. That’s what happens when the financial sector drove rapidly, leaving growth in the production sector. This has repeatedly occurred.

Financial sector growth is remarkable, which is also reflected by the growth of national income, eventually followed by the financial crisis. Even worse, the dynamics of the financial sector is often very dependent on “gossip” among investors in the financial sector. When these investors lose confidence, they trooped to sell their securities. Financial sector to fall and consequently create more confidence in the fall. Bank may fall so that the economy hit resin.

When the confidence of investors to recover, the financial sector also recovered. However, do not automatically recover the production sector. Restoring production sector requires a longer time than just building confidence of investors. Unfortunately, until now we have not managed to regulate the sector controlled by the “rumors” these investors. Would our economy and social sector we are constantly influenced by the gossip these investors? If the rumors they make a mess the financial sector, economic sector apart, and social sectors affected by the old.

If the gossip they improved, improved financial sector, investors again triumphed. However, the sector followed with a slow economy, and social sectors will be followed by much slower again. Without a fundamental change in world financial structure, the same pattern will continue over and over. Financial sector grew rapidly, then the crisis, and recovery occurs. Then the financial sector grew rapidly again, and again the crisis. And so on. With the financial integration and a stronger economy, a crisis will occur even more widespread and profound. The distance from one crisis to another crisis would be shorter.

Financial and economic crisis is feared finally brings social and political crisis. Currently in some countries the property sector has provided heat symptoms. People raced to speculate in the property sector. Inflation in some countries began to worry about a new danger. This all danger signals. The crisis will happen again soon? Volume II global crisis? And, suddenly, last Wednesday (November 25, 2009), Dubai World, a Dubai government owned conglomerate, announced the postponement of payment of their debts.

This indicates this conglomeration of financial difficulties. Suddenly this news makes investors panicked. They raced to sell their securities. Meanwhile, because the date 27 days holiday (Idul Adha), followed by week-end, financial markets are closed and not much information obtained from Dubai. On Sunday (November 29) United Arab Emirates government to try to calm investors by saying that they would help the liquidity of the financial sector in Dubai. This week is the week that counts. We’ll see whether this crisis will remain Dubai in Dubai alone, or be extended to Asia, Europe, and the whole world.

Is this going to be a global crisis of volume II? Hopefully, this crisis can be detained Dubai in Dubai and did not spread everywhere. Whatever the outcome, it seems we should have immediately made the financial arrangements of the new world, which does not rely on gossip investors. We should not have to rush immediately to integrate our financial sector to the world’s financial sectors. We can give an example to regulate the financial sector so as not to grow leaves production sector growth. Financial sector needs to be returned to the original function of helping the growth of the production sector.

Do the financial sector into a separate profit center, regardless of the production sector, as long as this happens, and always produces a crisis. In addition, to guard against the possibility of a global crisis of volume II, either because of crisis Dubai or any other crisis, we need to further consider the domestic economy. Integration of the domestic economy became far more important than any regional integration or global integration. With the dependence on market and major factor in the country, we can reduce the impact of the global crisis on our global economic and social sectors. This Crisis clearly shows that we benefit in two ways.

First, the financial sector, we have not really integrated into the world financial sector. Second, the contribution of our exports is still low.

Closing years late, billionaire Warren Buffett told his view of the economy in the future. From the predictions, there are eight points about the economic crisis that still haunt the country in various parts of the world.

Market participants assess this prediction is called the projection that is not bound by time. The reason Buffett gives general and comprehensive.

The following eight Warren Buffett’s view, as quoted CNBC.com, Tuesday (1/12/2009);

1. Forever recession is unavoidable. As the crisis that occurred in 2007. Buffett said that if the unemployment will increase significantly, and the U.S. economy fell into recession in 2008. According to Buffett, the shock is the capitalist cycle.

2. Any company or country will survive the recession and the future will be like they’ve survived past problems. “We have a wonderful economy. There never was anything like that in world history. We live seven times better than a century ago. We’ve got a problem all along. If you saw the last century, we have the Big Depression, World War II, the dam has the atomic bomb. But many countries are capable of running well, “he said.

3. Recessions will create opportunities. “I feel much better in my lifetime in 1974. And it is a very pessimistic and the oil shocks and stagflation, and all similar matters. But cheap stock prices.”

4. All shares will not be cheap. Market participants waited for the movement of the stock at the right time and right price.

5. Economic chaos will bear fruit mistake. Buffett cites this advice from his mentor Benjamin Graham: “You’re not right or wrong because others agree with you. You are right because the facts are correct and your reasoning correctly. And that’s the only thing that makes you right. And if the fact – facts and your reasoning is correct, you do not have to worry about other people. ”

6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices is a bad thing. “If they lower the price of hamburgers at McDonald’s today, I feel great. Now I do not go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I’ll buy it cheaper today. Whatever you do will come back to buy at times front, you want to have to be cheaper. ”

7. In a good situation sometimes often bad decisions. In 2000 Buffett letter to Berkshire shareholders, he compares the many market participants who buy when prices are high. “They know that overstaying the celebration (ie, continue to speculate) in the giant companies that have valuations relative to their cash, tend to produce in the future.

8. There will be more parties with wild stocks. “The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people do not learn from history,” added Buffett.

Dubai Government insists, if not responsible for the debt and the chaos that occurs in Dubai World.

This statement was made following the assumption of debt creditors that the failure of Dubai Wold will receive a guarantee from the United Arab Emirates.

“The lender must share the responsibility for their decisions to lend funds to the company,” said Director General of Dubai Department of Finance Abdulrahman Al-Saleh, was quoted as saying by Reuters on Tuesday (1/12/2009). “They think that Dubai World is part of the government, it is not true,” he added.

In the first statement since the crisis began, Dubai World said, the Dubai government holding company controls it. Any debt restructuring will cost $ 26 billion and mainly affects the property companies, Nakheel and others. However, other companies, such as DP Wolrd, Jebel Ali Free Zone and Istithmar World, will not be included in the restructuring, because they are considered financially stable.

As reported, state-owned Government of Dubai, Dubai World, proposed a debt payment delays resulting shock waves in the global market. The price of shares in Europe and Asia fell, while the United States market (the U.S.) are protected because the closed Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Dubai’s debt crisis has the potential resolved. Abu Dhabi, the neighboring emirates of Dubai in United Arab Emirates federation, is ready to help the debt crisis experienced by Dubai. Only, Abu Dhabi richer states have oil reserves will cover all the debts of Dubai worth USD59 billion.

Commodity prices were to be dropped, including the weakening of oil prices up to five percent. Abu Dhabi become the foundation to help Dubai. Abu Dhabi control 90 percent of oil reserves in the United Arab Emirates, the country’s third largest oil exporter in the world. Abu Dhabi has a sovereign wealth funds (SWF) in the world with a wealth of USD700 billion.

With the number of Abu Dhabi could easily help the difficulties in the field of Dubai property. Constitutionally, each Emirate United Arab Emirates is a separate legal entity, but joined in the federation. Each Emirate has their own control over natural resources and finance. The federal government has no right to access resources or to guarantee the obligations of each Emirate. Trusted, Abu Dhabi would not be willing to cover all debts of Dubai. Abu Dhabi will sort out and will not help that Dubai company take its business model affected the global economic crisis.

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