The world has repeatedly experienced the crisis. From the beginning only regional to global. Asia, for example, has experienced a crisis in 1997-1998.
This crisis originated from Thailand which although not spread far from East Asia and Southeast Asia. Recovery of the crisis occurred in 1999 and then we saw economic conditions in East and Southeast Asia continue to improve. However, in 2008 the world was a global crisis that started from developed countries are the United States. The whole world felt the impact. East Asian crisis and Southeast Asia in the 1997-1998 financial crisis began with the then spread to the economic crisis. For most of Asia, this economic crisis also spread to the social and political crisis. While the global crisis also began with 2008-2009 financial crisis, followed by the economic crisis. Fortunately, there is no social and political impact of the means.
Now many are saying that the global crisis was over. National income has increased again. However, often said that the new restoration feels for the financial sector. While the economic sector recovery was more sluggish. Even the social impact of the crisis is still felt to this day. In a recent UNDP report (The Global Financial Crisis and the Asia-Pacific Region, 2009) argued that social recovery is usually slower than the economic recovery. Even the social impacts such as low nutrient in children can last forever.
Meanwhile, many people who still worry about this economic recovery. The world’s financial system was the cause of all crises are the same as before the crisis. Financial sector is always growing fast, much faster than production sector growth. Though the financial sector is needed to help the growth of the production sector. Financial sectors like oil for motor vehicles can run well. When the oil is too much, any vehicle will stagger and perhaps even strike. That’s what happens when the financial sector drove rapidly, leaving growth in the production sector. This has repeatedly occurred.
Financial sector growth is remarkable, which is also reflected by the growth of national income, eventually followed by the financial crisis. Even worse, the dynamics of the financial sector is often very dependent on “gossip” among investors in the financial sector. When these investors lose confidence, they trooped to sell their securities. Financial sector to fall and consequently create more confidence in the fall. Bank may fall so that the economy hit resin.
When the confidence of investors to recover, the financial sector also recovered. However, do not automatically recover the production sector. Restoring production sector requires a longer time than just building confidence of investors. Unfortunately, until now we have not managed to regulate the sector controlled by the “rumors” these investors. Would our economy and social sector we are constantly influenced by the gossip these investors? If the rumors they make a mess the financial sector, economic sector apart, and social sectors affected by the old.
If the gossip they improved, improved financial sector, investors again triumphed. However, the sector followed with a slow economy, and social sectors will be followed by much slower again. Without a fundamental change in world financial structure, the same pattern will continue over and over. Financial sector grew rapidly, then the crisis, and recovery occurs. Then the financial sector grew rapidly again, and again the crisis. And so on. With the financial integration and a stronger economy, a crisis will occur even more widespread and profound. The distance from one crisis to another crisis would be shorter.
Financial and economic crisis is feared finally brings social and political crisis. Currently in some countries the property sector has provided heat symptoms. People raced to speculate in the property sector. Inflation in some countries began to worry about a new danger. This all danger signals. The crisis will happen again soon? Volume II global crisis? And, suddenly, last Wednesday (November 25, 2009), Dubai World, a Dubai government owned conglomerate, announced the postponement of payment of their debts.
This indicates this conglomeration of financial difficulties. Suddenly this news makes investors panicked. They raced to sell their securities. Meanwhile, because the date 27 days holiday (Idul Adha), followed by week-end, financial markets are closed and not much information obtained from Dubai. On Sunday (November 29) United Arab Emirates government to try to calm investors by saying that they would help the liquidity of the financial sector in Dubai. This week is the week that counts. We’ll see whether this crisis will remain Dubai in Dubai alone, or be extended to Asia, Europe, and the whole world.
Is this going to be a global crisis of volume II? Hopefully, this crisis can be detained Dubai in Dubai and did not spread everywhere. Whatever the outcome, it seems we should have immediately made the financial arrangements of the new world, which does not rely on gossip investors. We should not have to rush immediately to integrate our financial sector to the world’s financial sectors. We can give an example to regulate the financial sector so as not to grow leaves production sector growth. Financial sector needs to be returned to the original function of helping the growth of the production sector.
Do the financial sector into a separate profit center, regardless of the production sector, as long as this happens, and always produces a crisis. In addition, to guard against the possibility of a global crisis of volume II, either because of crisis Dubai or any other crisis, we need to further consider the domestic economy. Integration of the domestic economy became far more important than any regional integration or global integration. With the dependence on market and major factor in the country, we can reduce the impact of the global crisis on our global economic and social sectors. This Crisis clearly shows that we benefit in two ways.
First, the financial sector, we have not really integrated into the world financial sector. Second, the contribution of our exports is still low.
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Largest SME bank in the United States, CIT Group finally register on Sunday for bankruptcy protection (1/11/2009). Bankruptcy bank that has received U.S. government bailout fund of U.S. $ 2.33 billion has now become one of the largest in the United States.